HCC Emergency Management on LinkedIn: Tropical Tidbits (2024)

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Hurricane Warnings Issued for Bermuda Ahead of Strengthening ErnestoErnesto could directly impact Bermuda on Saturday while swell from the large hurricane creates dangerous surf and rip currents for U.S. east coast beachesMichael LowryAug 15Threat of dangerous and life-threatening surf and rip currents along the U.S. East CoastAs we detailed inyesterday’s newsletter, Ernesto is expected to produce a wide area of swell that will spread toward the U.S. east coast starting in earnest on Friday and continuing into the weekend.Beachgoers from the Carolinas to the mid-Atlantic northward to New England will see dangerous surf conditions and the risk for life-threatening rip currents in the days ahead. Rip currents – strong channels of water that can pull even the best swimmers out to sea. Always mind the red flags and swim only at guarded beaches if you’re headed out to enjoy the warm summer waters.Tropics quiet into next week behind ErnestoIt appears the tropics will stay surprisingly quiet into next week in the wake of Alberto. Despite low wind shear and a very warm Atlantic, the systems rolling off Africa are hitting the Atlantic at a higher latitude than usual and getting mixed up in some lingering Saharan dust and dry air.

Space City WeatherThere’s only one bit of good news in this forecast: We’re almost half way through AugustBy Eric Berger on August 15, 2024In brief: Houston's forecast remains more of less the same for the foreseeable future. We're going to see blistering hot days, sultry and warm nights, and only very low-end rain chances for at least the next week to 10 days. So it goes in high summer in Houston, beneath high pressure.August countdownToday is August 15. There are 16 days and 17 hours until September 1.Houston will see 'extreme' heat this weekend. ThursdaySkies will be mostly sunny today, with temperatures likely reaching the upper 90s for most of the Houston metro area. Winds will be light this morning, increasing to about 10 mph from the south later this afternoon. We will once again be on the lookout for isolated showers and thunderstorms, firing up along the sea breeze, later this morning and into the afternoon hours. Chances will be about 20 percent near the coast, and lesser for locations further inland. Lows tonight will only fall to around 80 degrees.Friday, Saturday, Sunday, and MondayIt looks like our heat will peak this weekend, and into next week, when much of the city will likely hit triple digit temperatures. We'll continue to see sunny to mostly sunny skies, with isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms.Later next weekIt's still going to be hot. But at some point next week we should start to come down slightly in temperatures, back into the upper 90s. Rain chances could become a bit higher as well, perhaps in the 20 to 30 percent range, during the second half of next week, but I wouldn't bank on it. The ridge of high pressure just isn't going to move a whole lot, so accordingly our weather isn't going to change much.

The EyewallErnesto, now a hurricane pulls away toward Bermuda while dousing Puerto Rico with flooding rainBy Matt Lanza on August 14, 2024HeadlinesHurricane Ernesto delivering torrential rain and flooding to Puerto Rico.Ernesto will continue to pull away north of the Caribbean, relaxing impacts there.The hurricane will track toward Bermuda for late week and this weekend, coming very close and likely delivering considerable impacts there.Beyond Bermuda, it appears there is an increasing risk for a direct impact in the Canadian Maritimes next week.

Ernesto Dousing Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, Forecast to Become a Hurricane Today. Up to 4 to 7 inches of rain has already fallen across the U.S. territories with numerous flash flood warnings ongoingMichael LowryAug 14, 2024Ernesto Wednesday morning satellite. Credit: NOAAThe center of Tropical Storm Ernesto passed over the Virgin Islands east of Puerto Rico late Tuesday, bringing rounds of torrential rainfall to the U.S. territories that continued into Wednesday morning.San Juan, Puerto Rico, radar loop from around 2 PM local Tuesday to 8 AM local Wednesday. Notice the developing core of Ernesto on radar with nascent eye in the final few frames. Credit: Mark Nissenbaum/Florida State University. Winds gusted to 74 mph on the eastern edge of Puerto Rico during the pre-dawn hours Wednesday. So far up to 7 inches of rain has fallen, mainly south and east of San Juan in Puerto Rico and across parts of the nearby islands of Vieques, Culebra, and on St. Thomas in the U.S Virgin Islands. Another 4 to 6 inches of rainfall is forecast for parts of southeastern Puerto Rico as Ernesto’s long tail of rainfall scrapes over the island today.By the time it’s all said and done, close to a foot or more of total rain is possible for parts of Puerto Rico and flash flooding with dangerous mudslides and landslides in higher terrain will be ongoing threats today. Treacherous marine conditions with seas topping 10 feet and dangerous, life-threatening surf will persist for much of the day.Ernesto almost a hurricane, could threaten Bermuda this weekendErnesto is now centered north of Puerto Rico and will continue to turn northward and away from the islands on Wednesday, passing northeast of the Dominican Republic and Haiti. Multiple hurricane hunter aircraft flying Ernesto this morning are finding winds very near hurricane strength with a better-defined core. It won’t be long until Ernesto is upgraded to the 3rd hurricane of the 2024 season, almost a full month ahead of when we typically see our third hurricane in the Atlantic.As we’ve covered in newsletters since last week, conditions in the western Atlantic are ripe for strengthening and the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center now takes Ernesto to a Category 3 major hurricane by early Friday as it curls toward Bermuda.No additional development expected into next weekWhile disturbances will continue to push through the tropical Atlantic next week, our models continue to be ho-hum on development for the near term. Things can change in a jiffy in August, so we’ll stay vigilant but for now we should be able to enjoy a quiet start to next week.

Space City WeatherAs heat continues, we dig deeper into Hurricane Beryl’s wind data. It was unpleasant, but very far from a worst-case scenarioBy Eric Berger on August 14, 2024In brief: Houston's heat will continue to build this week, likely peaking with triple-digit temperatures this weekend across most of the metro area. Wednesday, Thursday, and FridayBy now, you should know the drill. For the rest of the week we're going to see mostly sunny days with temperatures in the upper 90s. We'll continue to see some spotty rain chances during the late morning and afternoon hours as the sea breeze pushes inland. If I'm being generous, I'll say there's a 20 percent chance of such showers near the coast, and perhaps a 10 percent chance inland of Interstate 10. Consider yourself fortunate if you get a splash of rain to help the trees and briefly cool down the air. Winds will be light in the morning, before blowing from the southeast at about 10 mph by the late afternoon hours. Overnight lows will only fall to about 80 degrees.Plenty of extreme heat lies ahead for Houston, based on wet bulb globe temperatures. Saturday and SundayThe temperature dial gets turned up higher for the weekend, with much of the area reaching 100 degrees. Rain chances also fall back to near zero, as high pressure strengthens and promotes sinking air. This probably will be the hottest stretch of summer—no guarantees, sorry—so let's all get through this together. We're about a month away from the time when we might realistically begin to hope for fall's first front.Next weekThe overall pattern does not change much next week, at least as far as I can see. Temperatures may fall a few degrees, back into the upper 90s. But it's still going to be hot and sunny, with warm and sultry nights. Rain chances look low.TropicsErnesto is approaching hurricane strength as it lifts away from Puerto Rico. It may well become a major hurricane before seriously threating the island of Bermuda on Friday or Saturday. Elsewhere the tropics are blissfully quiet for mid-August, and look to remain so over the next week at least.